As someone who has navigated the volatile waters of crypto and built businesses from the ground up, I’ve seen my share of regulation. But what happened in the Dutch House of Representatives this Thursday isn’t just regulation - it’s a fundamental assault on the mechanics of wealth building!
The lower chamber just advanced a plan to impose a 36% tax on savings and liquid assets, explicitly including cryptocurrencies. On the surface, it sounds like just another tax hike. But the "devil" is in a very specific detail: this tax applies to unrealized gains.
If you hold Bitcoin, and the price goes up, the Dutch government wants 36% of that "paper profit" at the end of the year - even if you haven’t sold a single satoshi.
A Tax on "What If"
The bill, which cleared the House with 93 votes (well over the 75-vote threshold), marks a radical shift. Under the proposed Actual Return in Box 3 Act, the government is moving away from "assumed" returns and toward taxing the actual increase in your portfolio's value.
While proponents argue this creates "fairness" by taxing passive wealth like earned income, they seem to ignore the reality of the markets. Crypto isn’t a savings account; it’s a high-risk, high-volatility asset. If your portfolio spikes in December and crashes in February, you’ve already paid a 36% "success fee" on money that no longer exists.
A Professional Perspective: How are investors expected to maintain liquidity when they are forced to sell their assets just to pay taxes on profits they haven't actually cashed out?
The Cost of Compounding (Or Lack Thereof)
For those of us who understand the power of compound interest, this plan is a nightmare. Let’s look at the math that should keep every long-term investor awake at night.
| Scenario (40 Years, €1k monthly) | Final Portfolio Value | The "Tax Gap" |
|---|---|---|
| No Unrealized Gains Tax | ~€3.32 Million | €0 |
| 36% Unrealized Gains Tax | ~€1.89 Million | €1.43 Million |
By skimming off the top every single year, the government isn't just taking your current profit; they are taking the future earnings that profit would have generated. In this example, you lose nearly half of your potential retirement nest egg to a policy that punishes you for simply holding on.
Is This the End of the "Dutch Startup" Dream?
History is a harsh teacher, and we’ve seen this movie before. When France flirted with similar capital-sweep proposals, the result wasn't a windfall of tax revenue—it was an exodus of talent.
Entrepreneurs and investors are mobile. If the Netherlands becomes a jurisdiction where your wealth is cannibalized before it can even mature, why stay? We are already seeing analysts like Michaël van de Poppe warn of a massive capital flight to more "crypto-friendly" shores.
Ask yourself this:
- If you were a founder looking to base your next tech unicorn in Europe, would you choose a country that taxes your paper gains at 36%?
- At what point does "fairness" become a deterrent for the very innovation that fuels a modern economy?
What’s Next on the Horizon?
The bill now moves to the Senate. If approved, we are looking at a 2028 effective date. That gives us a window, but it’s a narrow one. We need to watch closely for:
- The Senate’s Final Verdict: Will they see the risk of capital flight and demand amendments?
- Enforcement Practicalities: How exactly does the Belastingdienst plan to value volatile, decentralized assets on a fixed date every year?
- Global Precedent: Will other EU nations follow suit, or will they seize the opportunity to welcome the capital fleeing the Netherlands?
This isn't just about crypto; it’s about the right to grow your wealth without the state taking a bite out of your potential before you’ve even realized it. We should all be very concerned.